What is the Spectrum?
is a system comprising of different computer models in a unified, user-friendly
package. The models comprising SPECTRUM are used to determine
the future consequences of today’s population policies
and programs. In 2003, the models included in the SPECTRUM
system are: DemProj, FamPlan, Ben-Cost, NewGen, AIM, PMTCT,
DemProj projects the population for a
country or region by age and sex, based on assumptions about
fertility, mortality, and migration. A full set of demographic
indicators can be displayed for up to 50 years into the future.
Urban and rural projections can also be prepared. A companion
model, EasyProj, allows the user to make a population projection
using estimates produced by the Population Division of the
FamPlan: Family Planning.
FamPlan projects family planning
requirements to reach national or consumer goals of contraceptive
practice or desired fertility. The program uses assumptions
about the proximate determinants of fertility and the characteristics
of the family planning program (e.g., method mix, source mix,
discontinuation rates) to calculate numbers of users and acceptors
of different methods by source. Various strategies can be simulated
as a way to evaluate alternative methods of achieving program
BenCost: Financial benefits and costs of family planning programs.
Older versions of the benefit-cost analysis model were named
Benefit-Cost. This model compares the monetary cost of family
planning programs to the monetary benefits in terms of reduced
levels of social services required at lower levels of fertility.
Benefits are defined as savings in government expenses on social
services. BenCost is a module that allows planners to add the
cost of health, education, and other social services to population
projections created with the DemProj and FamPlan modules. BenCost
can be used to study the long-term economic costs and benefits
to society resulting from changes in family planning programs.
AIM: AIDS Impact Model.
AIM projects the consequences of the
HIV/AIDS epidemic, including the number of people living with
HIV/AIDS, new infections, and AIDS deaths by age and sex, as
well as new cases of tuberculosis and AIDS orphans. AIM is
used by UNAIDS to make the national and regional estimates
it releases every two years.
PMTCT: Prevention of Maternal-to-Child Transmission.
evaluates the costs and benefits of intervention programs to
reduce transmission of HIV from mother to child. Three different
sets of interventions are included in the model: drug treatment
(seven possible options); type of delivery (vaginal or Cesarean
section); and type of infant feeding (formula, breastfeeding,
or mixed). Outputs include a benefit-cost ratio as well as
cost-effectiveness measures such as cost per HIV infection
NewGen: Reproductive health for adolescents.
the characteristics of the adolescent population in terms of
such indicators as school enrollment, sexual activity, pregnancy
rates, prevalence of HIV and STIs, and marriage rates. The
linkages among these indicators and the effects of policy changes
can be examined.
RAPID: Resources for the Awareness of Population Impacts on
RAPID projects the social and economic consequences
of high fertility and rapid population growth for such sectors
as labor, education, health, urbanization, and agriculture.
This program is used to raise policymakers' awareness of the
importance of fertility and population growth as factors in
social and economic development.
To install Spectrum on your computer click here
For the Spectrum Manuals click below on those that you would
like to view. Manuals in other languages are available on the
Futures Group Website.